Greetings from a world where…
If you have a Firmania tree, you don’t need to worry about attracting golden phoenixes [有了梧桐树,不愁引来金凤凰]
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Feature Translation: Has the fourth wave of scientist returnees arrived?
Context: Over this past year, many top scientists have returned to China, leading some Chinese media to label this phenomenon as a “new wave of returnees.” These include world-renowned mathematicians (Xu-Jia Wang, Huayi Chen, Song Sun), biologists, neuroscientists, physicists, etc. According to a Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences study, the number of ethnic Chinese scientists who have left the United States has steadily increased from 900 in 2010 to 2,621 in 2021.
According to Yutao Sun, a professor at Dalian University of Technology, this trend represents a continuation of the third wave of Chinese returnees.
The first two waves occurred in the early 1950s (after the PRC was established) and the early 1990s (during the deepening of the reform and opening up period).
The third came about after the global financial crisis in 2008. Still, 2018 marked an important turning point in this third wave. According to Sun: “Talent mobility involves both internal pull and external push. Compared to 2008, [China’s] pull has not changed significantly, but the external push is increasing, which has boosted the 'return to China wave’."
What do we know about this recent wave? Let’s take a look at this piece (link to original Chinese) published in The Intellectual [知识分子], a platform that covers the state of science in China, founded by Chinese and Chinese-American scientists.
Key Takeaways: The article finds, “Several scientists and researchers who have returned to China in recent years have mentioned to The Intellectual that the ‘China Initiative’ launched by the United States in 2018 is believed to have accelerated the return of Chinese scientists.
One scientist who recently returned to China said: “I returned to China for the following reasons: First, the scientific research conditions and environment in China are much better than before, especially in recent years, the developments have been very rapid, and the support of scientific research funds is also very attractive. Domestic scientific research cooperation and exchanges are also very active. In addition, it is easy to recruit excellent collaborators, research assistants and students in China to establish an efficient scientific research team. In addition, one very important reason is the change in the political environment in the United States. The discrimination against Chinese scientists is disturbing.”
The above-cited PNAS article concludes: “Under the China Initiative, a majority of US-based scientists of Chinese descent now feel the chilling effect of potential federal investigations and prosecution and have a new reason to be pessimistic about their careers in the US. Indeed, although an overwhelming majority would like to contribute to the US leadership in science and technology, many feel unwelcome and fearful of conducting research in the United States. For some Chinese–American scientists, this fear leads to their consideration of avoiding federal grant applications, especially among engineering and computer science faculty, and of leaving the United States, especially among junior faculty and federal grant awardees.”
Decisions to stay or leave are a product of many push and pull factors. Sun’s analysis of talent trends finds that the age structure of returnees shows spikes among young researchers and senior scientists nearing retirement.
Why are relatively few middle-aged scientists making the move? “Objectively speaking, the experimental conditions and experimental environment of natural sciences in the United States are indeed better than ours. In addition, there are also family reasons, such as children's education, etc.," Sun Yutao told The Intellectual, "When discussing whether scientists migrate or return to China, family is a very important factor."
Other studies have noted that scientists who have been abroad for a long time may struggle to integrate into China’s academic culture and environment. Feng Li, a professor at East China Normal University, analyzed 214 Changjiang Scholars (one of China’s flagship talent recruitment programs). Li found that, compared to other returnees, senior faculty returnees have a much higher chance (nearly 2x) of experiencing a “gap period” upon return (i.e., they do not publish in an international journal upon return to China for a period of time).
FULL TRANSLATION: Has the fourth wave of scientist returnees arrived?
ChinAI Links (Four to Forward)
Must-read: Things we learned about LLMs in 2024
I learned a lot from Simon Willison’s recap of key trends in LLMs from this past year. Two key sections that highlight developments in China: 1) The rise of inference-scaling “reasoning” models; 2) Was the best currently available LLM trained in China for less than $6m?
Should-read: Latitudes
Karen Fischer’s weekly newsletter is my go-to source on international education. She has provided excellent coverage on the China Initiative and the changing state of U.S.-China education partnerships.
Should-read: How a Young Chinese Nationalist Turned Her Back on Beijing
For The Wall Street Journal, Shen Lu tells us about Alex Zhu, a former “little pink” (young Chinese nationalist) who has since made a 180-degree turn:
U.S. leaders had long hoped that educational exchanges that brought hundreds of thousands of Chinese students to American campuses would mean democratic ideas would flow back to China and lead to a more open society. Those hopes never quite materialized.
Nonetheless, many young Chinese while abroad get their first uncensored insights into controversies in China’s past, such as the Tiananmen massacre, and current ones, including the suppression of Uyghurs or the demonstrations that mushroomed across major Chinese cities in 2022.
For many little pinks, the patriotic zeal doesn’t go all that deep and sometimes gives way in the face of such exposure, said Weirong Guo, a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard University who studies the Chinese diaspora.
Should-read: The Next Great GPT — Advancing Prosperity in the Age of AI
Thanks to Brad Smith, President of Microsoft, for plugging my book Technology and the Rise of Great Powers on the Microsoft blog. He distills key insights from the book and also brings in his experiences with skilling programs in computer science.
Thank you for reading and engaging.
These are Jeff Ding's (sometimes) weekly translations of Chinese-language musings on AI and related topics. Jeff is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at George Washington University.
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