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David Piepgrass's avatar

> Making AI that is smarter than almost all humans at almost all things…is most likely to happen in 2026-2027).

> AGI is ... always two years away from being two years away.

These statements aren't in conflict. I use agentic frontier AI daily in my job as a senior software developer, and I'm fairly consistently amazed at how smart and capable it is. I wouldn't call it AGI, but hot damn it's amazing. I do think this tech leads directly to "quasi-AGI" which will do most of what most people expect of AGI (maybe not "ASI", but we'll see) in two years or less. A capabilities plateau seems likely, but I wouldn't count on it.

Edit: I also want to clarify that GPT5.x and Claude Opus 4.5 are superhuman at most of the things they do. I can write code that is more intuitive and more compact than the AIs; I have much stronger taste (e.g. if a function call fails because of a missing mock, you edit the mock, not the production code, come on AI). I have a stronger sense of how a GUI should look. I can debug more persistently and diagnose the true cause of bugs more reliably. But just about everything else the AI can do dramatically faster and better than me or any other developer I know. Okay, so it's a computer, so maybe you're not surprised that it can grasp in a few seconds what most developers would need a day to figure out, and write in a couple of minutes what would take a human hours. But it's also distinctly superhuman in its ability to write correct code without tooling, token-by-token, left-to-right and top-to-bottom, in its ability to write code without bugs on the first attempt, and in its ability to keep a very large number of considerations in mind simultaneously. It's far beyond where I would have put my 90% confidence intervals, one year ago, for AI capabilities now, and there's no sign that these improvements are hitting any walls or boundaries. And that's on top of the vast array of "human" abilities, beyond mere programming, that I never would have expected from any machine in the 21st century. Frontier AI is dumbfounding, gobsmacking, somebody-pinch-me stuff. Okay, it's still overconfident and still hallucinates, but at this point I would no longer be surprised if that's fixed by end-of-year. Amazed, but not surprised.

Robert Dudney's avatar

Thanks for csharing this information.

I had no clue how AI regulation was done in China.

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